Avoid Getting caught Under the Dome

"I would say that we may have underestimated the anti-incumbent mood."

-- U.S. Senator Blanche Lincoln (D-Arkansas), cnn.com, June 8, 2010

After reading this, we were wondering where the Senator has been living for the last year – in a cave?

A strong anti-incumbent, anti-establishment and anti-Washington sentiment has been brewing for over a year, manifesting in real political movements and some partisan driven groups.

The Senator's comments reflect a common affliction with many office holders, they develop an "under the dome" mentality, which is when their sphere of influence and perceptions are based on what a small circle of capitol insiders say and feel. Incumbents lose touch with the real needs and concerns of the people they represent. This mentality drives incumbents to feel everything they do in the Capitol is important to the voters back home while ignoring the local (small) things they must do back in their community.

Elections are won by candidates who remain in touch with the core needs and values of the people they represent and recognize that serving in a governing body is an honor and not a right bestowed upon them. They must recognize their job is to advocate for the people they represent, not a small group of capitol building advocates. Elected officials must advocate the issues and values in the legislature and beyond that connect with the voters in their communities, states, Districts. Incumbents should always be actively engaged in their communities when not required to be in session or the Capitol – this will prevent disconnections exemplified by Sen. Lincoln’s comment. Unfortunately, too many of our elected officials retreat to the safety cocoon of the Capitol and lose touch with the realities of what happens in their communities.

This is why we advise and push our incumbent clients to remain fully engaged in their communities throughout their term and to not focus exclusively on their work in the Capitol. This engagement includes aggressive earned and paid communications before the traditional campaign season, significant personal activity in their community among the voters – walking, Town Hall meetings, small groups / coffee meetings, as well as simply doing their job well – holding regular publicized offices hours, returning phone calls, taking care of problems with constituents no matter how big or small, etc. This also includes periodic polling to maintain a real pulse on the constituents they represent, identify opportunities and challenges and devise political and policy strategies to address these challenges.

Incumbents who remain engaged in their community will know the needs and concerns in their community that must be addressed and catch changes in attitudes. They will not have to climb out from their safety cocoon and be awaken by an anti-incumbent election.

Components of Political Polling: The Benchmark Analysis

Campaigns need a detailed analysis that highlights the key findings of a survey and interprets the findings into usable strategic recommendations. A good analysis always goes significantly more in-depth than the "slide show" presentations that have become popular in recent years. A quality analysis provides direction, focus and discipline to a campaign.

Continuing our series on understanding political polling, we've previously discussed the components of crafting a survey and how to read crosstabs. Now, we will discuss the components that should be present in an in-depth strategic analysis of a typical comprehensive benchmark survey.

An analysis is essentially a detailed strategic playbook for a campaign in three parts. A good analysis will be one part reporting key findings, one part analysis and strategic interpretation of those findings, and another part interrelating these findings and interpretations into cohesive strategic advice.

The analysis should report the significant findings of the survey and the pollster's strategic interpretation of the data. As the report progresses, a strategy is developed as all the pieces of the puzzle come together, with a final conclusion and a detailed understanding of the candidate’s situation, dynamics of the election and a clear (or best available) path to victory.

All surveys should start with background information on the survey and other pertinent information. Sometimes campaigns will overlook this information, but it is critical so we'll take some additional time to address the importance of the 'technical stuff.'

Survey Methodology

Analysis reports for all surveys should contain a statement on methodology. The methodology statement should contain several fundamental facts about how the survey was conducted. At a minimum, the sample size, margin of error, the days the survey was conducted, if screening and/or weighting techniques were used, and how the survey was conducted should be present. It also should identify the polling firm and who commissioned the survey.

While many polling organizations are hesitant to reveal their specific scientific sample designs on reports for public release, the methodology statement should contain some insight on which sampling methods were use and their intended purpose. This gets into how a survey was conducted. This post isn't intended to discuss methodology statements, a topic we may cover another day.

Methodology statements are important to campaigns because they help address concerns over the quality and accuracy of collected research data. Unless the methodology statement ensures the statistical validity of inferences about the studied population, a survey won't earn credibility with potential donors, supporters, campaign staff or the media and should not be trusted to guide your campaign.

Survey Information / Glossaries

Most analysis reports will contain references to various demographic and attitudinal groups using terminology that may need defining because pollsters use their own terminology. Basic terms may be as simple as referring to regional classifications (ex. "This specific group of precincts represents this neighborhood..."). Slightly more complex terms may reference overall supporters and opponents or further classifications such as Weak/Strong Supporters/Opponents. The glossary should define how these groupings are arrived. Depending on the complexity of the analysis, a glossary may be defining combinations of attitudinal groups.

It also is important for surveys to identify the demographic composition of the survey, which to a degree may be accomplished in the glossary. This is important to evaluate if the survey is representative of known demographics or if it is identifying a demographic shift that older data does not reflect.

The Political Environment

The following sections deal with something we refer to as the political environment. Campaigns must accommodate for several factors not within the control (or limited control) of the campaign, but have significant impact on how the campaign must operate.

Voter Intensity

Election turnout is not predicted by political polling, but the voters' interest (intensity) in an election and trends in voting patterns are exposed through survey data. One of the goals of a benchmark survey is to determine the environment in which a campaign must operate. Benchmark surveys typically ask voters (often through a series of questions) how interested they are in participating in an election.

It's vital to know if your campaign will have to overcome a deficit of interest to energize your base or potential supporters. Gauging voter intensity among your opponents’ supporters helps to reveal the level of activity and interest in your opponent. Voter intensity can also reveal if certain attitudinal groups are likely to express their feelings through the ballot box (ex. Conservative Men list "School Taxes" as their number one issue concern and have a significantly higher level of interest in the election than the population as a whole).

This small piece of survey data is critical and can provide a lot of information related to the overall interpretation of the poll.

Partisanship & Ideology

Through demographic questions, a benchmark level survey should be able to determine variations of self-identified partisanship across the various regions, demographic and attitudinal groups in your survey. It's helpful to know where your partisan base of support is, which areas are ideologically aligned with your positions, if voters are independently minded in terms of voting, if voters revert to partisan voting with lesser known candidates, etc.

Is your opponent dependent on his or her partisan label or is there cross-over support? Is promoting your partisan label a good thing in this district or does it preclude the voters from even listening to your message? What is the partisan and ideological makeup of undecided voters and other key target groups? These questions and many others can be addressed through testing partisanship and ideology and analyzing how these factors will impact the election.

Mood of the Voters

The mood of the voters section of an analysis lends the campaign insight into how pessimistic or content the voters are feeling. The mood of the voters can be arrived at through several different types of survey questions, including the common right track / wrong track questions. The mood of the voters is a significant because, depending on their mood, the voters could be primed for messages of change, less responsive to such messages, more accepting of an incumbent's messages of accomplishment, or more likely to reject messages of accomplishment.

Through cross tabulation, your pollster should be able to tell the campaign what is the driving factor behind the mood of the voters. Sometimes the mood of the voters has little to do with how they feel about a particular elected official.

A benchmark survey also helps a campaign understand what the voters are concerned about and how the voters feel about known significant or controversial issues. Knowing what the voters are concerned about in general helps the campaign refine its communications to speak to the concerns of the voters. Having an understanding of the voters' opinions on complex issues (like immigration, abortion, same-sex marriage) can save a campaign from making disastrous decisions such as shifting the focus of a campaign’s message in a way that clashes with the voters or seeking a third party issue endorsements that alienates the candidate from the voters.

Issue Concerns

Our surveys usually include a volunteered (open-ended) most important issue concerns section, although many pollsters use a listed version of this question (which we feel provides less useful information). These questions typically reveal the macro problems that the campaign already has an awareness of, to a degree. At the micro level, the most important issue concern can expose undercurrent and developing issues and allow for micro-targeting of particular demographics which significantly express concern over a certain problem more than other voters.

It is particularly important for the issue section of the analysis to relate the voters' concerns with the messages that were tested in the survey because messages that test strong will be inherently stronger if they relate to a key concern of voters. Knowing the most important issue concerns and on which voters they have the greatest affect and how they interrelate with a candidates agenda (message) will help the campaign target persuasive messages and develop a communications plan that ties into key concerns and the candidates strongest points.

Opinions of Significant Issues

Occasionally there are significant and unique developments and issues that will have a direct effect on the election. These can include national, state, local and sometimes campaign specific issues. Pollsters do not tell candidates what their positions should be on the issues, but they can provide guidance on how to deal with the issue and how that concern may factor into the campaign.

It’s important to know what voters think about key issues in order to determine if your position is helpful or a hindrance to your campaign. Your poll can determine which demographics are likely to be "single-issue" voters though the use of issue questions and follow-up questions on voting behavior.

Reproductive freedom and stem cell research are examples of two hot button issues where a campaign needs to know if their position would make better sense as a broadcast or targeted message.

Benchmark level surveys also evaluate opinions of the candidates and other public individuals or organizations that could have an impact on the campaign. Knowing the voters' opinions of a candidate and his/her opponent lets a campaign know whether they have to focus time and money repairing image problems, defining themselves to the voters, if they can define their opponent or if the opponent is too well known, etc. Political surveys also test support for candidates in various configurations of trial heat simulations and test the campaign’s messages for persuasive value.

Opinions of Candidates and Other Public Figures

A political survey is more than just finding out who is winning and who is best known. Benchmark level surveys allow for an in-depth review of the candidates. Personal favorability and job performance ratings where an incumbent is involved are typically included in benchmark level surveys.

These items give an overall picture of where a candidate stands in the minds' of the voters. More in-depth surveys will offer a series of open-ended questions asking specifically about positive or negative aspects of either candidate. This type of questioning can prove invaluable in tight races, especially when one of the candidates is a longer-term incumbent or well known public figure.

Discovering the voter's opinion of the candidates will allow the campaign to know if a candidate has deep rooted appeal, passive support, if the voters think he/she is doing a good job and, through open ended questions, can discover nuances in opinion that can expose potential vulnerabilities or strengths.

Beyond the candidates, a campaign needs evaluate opinions of other significant public figures (or organizations). This data helps the campaign decide if it is worth expending resources to promote an endorsement, or which demographics to target information on a specific endorsement and if an opponent's public supporters can impact voting behavior.

Trial Heats and Informed Trial Heats

The horse race question is the standard-bearer for political surveys. A simple trial heat can tell you which candidate is currently leading if the election where held today and, more importantly, it can tell a campaign where and among whom each candidate is performing better and worse. The analysis of this component of the survey should detail where each candidate garners their support, how deep and strong their support is and identify each candidates' areas of weakness.

An informed trial heat is designed to simulate the effects of an engaged campaign, presenting balanced positive and negative messages about each candidate. The end result of the election scenario tells a campaign what is possible with their messages and themes they plan to implement. Most importantly, this section will determine if the core message works in direct contrast to the opponent(s)' message and can identify movement among the various demographic and attitudinal groups -- helping refine strategy.

The interpretation of this part of a survey should include detailed demographic profiles of various targets groups such as undecided voters, strong and weak supporters of the candidates, persuadable voters and any other group the pollster has identified as vital to the campaign. This section of the analysis also should highlight the key objectives of the campaign and the targets to meet those objectives. For example, the poll may identify that your Democratic candidate has significantly lower name ID and support among Democratic women than their male counterparts, so a key early base building objective of the campaign would be to raise name ID and favorable image of your candidate among this group.

Messages

It is better for the campaign to have its messages right the first time, than to spend the rest of the campaign correcting it.

A benchmark survey tests the persuasive value of a campaign's set of messages. There are various ways to accomplish this -- through contrasting statements, statement choice tests, informed ballot test and through tests of isolated issues / messages / language and other means. Benchmark level surveys typically test batteries of positive and negative messages on all candidates.

Through the analysis process, it is possible to determine which messages hold the most overall strength and, just as importantly, among which subgroups and key target groups each message is most persuasive.

With an understanding of the top issue concerns in the district, campaigns can utilize message testing to speak directly to targeted sets of voters on issues that they are most concerned. Testing messages isn’t about finding out what to say; so much as it is to find out if what the campaign plans to say is worth saying and who best to say it to. Message testing is used by campaigns to narrow down their messages to those that are both relevant and most convincing.

Campaigns can also test the value of narratives and themes the campaign is considering using. A well fitted narrative and a comprehensive theme can tie together the various policy priorities and beliefs of the candidate into a cohesive message that works for its political environment.

The analysis of the poll should: recommend the overall thematic connections for the message; suggest language that emphasizes this narrative; synthesize the message; identify what components and language are the best for the campaign to utilize; and, identify the strongest points of contrast with your opponent(s).

Analysis Conclusions and Message / Target Group Demographic Profile

We also feel that all analysis should have a conclusion that ties all the pieces together into a simple, easy to use format. This conclusion clearly needs to show the political environment, dynamics of the election, key target groups, the demographic profile and the messages that work best with these groups. We like to use a simple target and message profile chart -- basically a "reminder sheet" for the campaign team.

This summary will synthesize the more detailed and complex components of the analysis into a simple to use actionable document. It will highlight the campaign's key objectives, targets and message. This conclusion serves as a constant reminder for the strategic team of where the campaign needs focus.

Components of Crafting a Survey

Most successful endeavors require prior planning; a successful political survey is no exception. The quality of your survey is dependent upon the value of the information gathered before it is crafted. There are generally seven research components needed to develop a strategic survey. We will briefly outline these criteria, explain their significance in surveying, and simultaneously review the various components that should be present in a good benchmark level survey.

A benchmark survey is a comprehensive evaluation of the election dynamics, candidates and issues. They are used to develop your strategy and message. They serve as your campaign's tactical guide and strategic "play book." Benchmark surveys usually are 15 - 20 minutes in length, or longer. It should be as comprehensive as your budget allows.

Unlike like Stephen Colbert’s interviews in his Better Know a District series, you have to have a basic understanding about the region where you will be polling.

What’s the population? How would you describe the various areas within where you want to poll? What are the characteristic’s of the area’s economy? Does the area have a unique history?

Population and voter registration data help determine the polling sample size needed to efficiently and conduct a statistically accurate survey. All political surveys should have multiple regions that represent something usable to your campaign. The regions that get established for your survey have to be significant for your campaign.

Is the West end of town mostly town homes? Is there a significant minority concentration on one side of town? Are there a handful of distinct townships within the region to be polled? Are these groups of precincts representative of a higher-income area? Are these groups of precincts virtually not walkable by the candidate or volunteers?

Questions like these should be asked when developing regions and the list of demographic classifications that you will find useful to have in your survey (such as any combination of gender, race, income, education, union status, political ideology, party ID, etc). Members of your campaign need to be able to look at your survey analysis and quickly determine what’s happening, among whom, and where.

Knowing population data (and vote share information) will help you determine what percentage of the vote each region represents. The campaign should work with the pollster (if needed) to find the projected turnout for the district and your winning 50% plus 1 number. Knowing where the vote is coming from and the opinion of voters in the various regions can help not only focus your campaign’s message, but also help in the allocation of the campaign’s budget.

Answering preliminary questions about the area you plan on surveying establishes the background to keep in mind throughout the survey process. Knowing a little about the district’s personality serves as a guide through the survey data collection process and makes it easier to spot any potential abnormalities early on.

When crafting a campaign, you also need the key players within the district.

Are there key officials, public figures or private individuals who would have an interest or impact on the campaign? Would an endorsement from a certain official be a help or hindrance? Is it worth spending campaign time and money to promote a particular endorsement? Will campaigning or sharing resources with another candidate hurt or help my campaign?

A proficient benchmark survey will test the personal favorability ratings of people who are of an interest to the campaign. Knowing if someone holds significant substantive recognition ratings and if they are viewed positively or negatively will help determine if valuable campaign resources should be expended in seeking or promoting endorsements and/or affiliations.

If public officials are being tested in the survey, their job performance ratings are usually also tested. When in the position of a challenger, the job performance rating and personal favorability of the incumbent is always tested. Incumbents should test their own favorability and performance ratings to help reveal any underlying potential weaknesses.

Job performance and personal favorability weaknesses oftentimes will reveal weaknesses that aren’t apparent in the benchmark survey's trial heat of candidates or issues. Sometimes voters will lean towards a known and disliked incumbent over an unknown challenger. For example, voters who responded that they are “weak supporters” in a trial heat question filtered into a group that show weak intensity toward a candidate personally or in their job performance rating through cross tabulation reports. It’s possible to narrow down the demographic list of voters that should be targeted by the campaign in this way through a variety of response position combinations.

Classifying groups of voters based on their support and feelings toward candidates or issues is not so useful in itself, but knowing what strategic message to communicate to target groups to achieve a desired effect completes the purpose of the survey.

Detailed background information on the candidates or issues must thoroughly be reviewed, prioritized and incorporated into the survey. This information could contain both helpful and damaging information. Depending on the budget of a campaign, this type of information will contain variations of the following: summaries of public records (tax liens, lawsuits, etc.), news clipping, issue positions, campaign finances, endorsements, other court/judicial records, interviews, tax records, voting records and other vital documents.

This information gathering process is called Opposition Research (aka OR, Oppo) and Vulnerability Research (research about yourself or the campaign issue). They are critical components that must be completed before a survey is crafted. There are several reputable information gathering firms who specialize in generating detailed strategic OR reports. Lower budget campaigns can conduct their own baseline research, but they need to be careful about allowing volunteers gather OR information, especially in candidate campaigns where zealous volunteers may not be diligent on fact-checking.

Opposition research has received a bad name in recent years (Negative attacks, "Swift Boating,"etc.), but OR itself is not inherently harmful to the democratic process. The ethics of OR is a discussion for a different posting, but remembered that the information tested in a survey is always left to the discretion of the pollster and the campaign. A good pollster will lend you his or her experience and guidance on whether to test controversial information and advise your campaign on utility of the information and the repercussions that could occur.

Along with knowing information about opponents, you or your issue, and, details about the area to be polled, it’s also important to understand all major or pertinent issues that may affect the campaign, including local issues. Polling allows you to test voter's opinions on important known issues.

Is a big-box retailer petitioning to move into town? Will reproductive freedom be a wedge issue brought into the campaign by your opponent? Is there a statewide debate brewing about same-sex marriage, or funding stem cell research?

Conducting a political survey about important issues will reveal not only the opinion of voters, but also the intensity they feel towards issues. You’ve probably heard the expression of a "poll driven politician," your campaign doesn’t want that association. Polling should not be used to determine your (or your campaign’s) issue positions, but rather it should help you develop an approach to talking about an issue (or whether to talk about an issue), discover natural allies (demographically, regionally), and, refine your approach in how your campaign communicates its messages about the issues.

Not every issue will be known by your campaign. A good benchmark survey will incorporate an open ended question early on to directly ask the voters what issue or problem they are most concerned about. Often times this question will reveal issues which your campaign is already aware, but open ended verbatim responses also reveal how issues are being discussed and lend insight to why voters feel the way they do. This form of open ended questioning sometimes reveals upcoming issues that haven’t boiled to the surface.

Knowing where voters stand on the issues will help refine your message. A benchmark survey can test the persuasive value of the potential arguments in support of your campaign and the arguments against your opponent(s). Testing messages isn’t so much about finding out what attacks stick against your opponent, but rather discovering which of messages hold the most persuasive value and most correlate to the concerns of the voters. Your campaign needs to speak to the concerns of the voters, testing messages through a benchmark poll keeps a campaign on target by speaking to the issues with messages that resonate with the voters.

This primer on the components of a benchmark survey is meant to familiarize information seekers on the formation process of a political benchmark survey. While in no way would we consider this discussion comprehensive, it has hopefully answered some preliminary questions about planning for a political poll. Benchmark polls should be conducted as early as possible in a campaign. To summarize, a benchmark poll’s purpose is to get the strategy and message correct early in the campaign, rather than spending the rest of the campaign fixing it.